Key government officials and Horn of Africa security analysts both believe that al-Shabaab is in decline both financially and military. Recent studies and reports on the murderous group suggest it is short on cash and that it collects infaaq, a term coined by the group for illegal taxation that it constantly collects from small business owners, farmers and livestock owners.

The group has been significantly degraded mainly due to the efforts of the Somali National Army’s elite forces Danab and its international allies. Al-Shabaab’s senior leadership has been decimated. Just last week, the Somali National Army captured key al-Shabaab leaders and several members in Lower and Middle Shabelle regions among them al-Shabaab’s head of finance, Hassan Yussuf Ali and the group’s head of education and radicalization, Ali Abdulle Jilaow.

The group is incapable of orchestrating a major attack because of the pressure that SNA has kept on. It is on the back foot as a result of financial pressures, counterterrorism operations and airstrikes and will soon be history. The murderous group is in disarray and eventual collapse is imminent.